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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a resolute position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "severe consequences" last August should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering truce talks, Trump eventually imposed substantial restrictions on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously hindered Putin's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would essentially benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the proposal actually weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, Trump persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about dominating a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an attractive model for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Giveaways

Although maintaining in status the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel the nation to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically compromised.

This region is the place of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that represent a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Putin a open route to Kyiv if he later opt to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a move that would enable future conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate government as radicals, the proposal asserts: "Every radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and banned." Apparently to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the initiative has Russia promise not to "attack other states" and to "establish in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized land in the region to Kyiv – why should the international community trust Putin now?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on international protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "immediate joint military response" if Russia restart its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars vary from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not just block the nation alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on the nation's land, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. Yet different from a strong national defense – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed invasion – the success of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not